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The views and opinions in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Discussion of any particular country is only intended to provide an open forum and facilitate thought and does not necessarily reflect an official assessment of or U.S. position on that country.
Intelligence doesn't just drive operations; it shapes how we think about them. Environmental framing helps us understand a complex world by answering the fundamental question of why things are happening. Environmental framing underpins operational design, just as intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) underpins the military decision making process (MDMP). MDMP solves problems; operational design ensures we solve the right ones.
The five aspects of environmental framing-historical drivers, current system state, trajectory, change factors, and range of potential outcomes-go beyond analysis to achieve synthesis. Think of historical drivers as the headwaters of a river. Seemingly insignificant at first, myriad run offs, creeks, and streams come together to form tributaries. These tributaries meet and interact to form the current system state of a river. Gravity drives the river as it cuts through terrain and flows toward the sea, just as the force of history bears down on the current system to propel it along its trajectory. Rocks and boulders encountered along the river's course alter its flow as change factors shape the range of potential outcomes. The river's delta, formed as the river pours into the sea, is the outcome. A river has the potential to form in various areas and in various ways, but the shape it ultimately takes is scoped by what it encounters along its entire path. Making sense of a river requires the study of its full journey.
Historical Drivers
History is fundamental to understanding today's complex world. Many of the roots of today's problems have grown out of yesterday's solutions. Exploring the way a system evolved provides insights into how it has adapted to its environment over time, where it was resistant to change or demonstrated latency in response, and when it sought to revert to a previous state, to reorganize along...