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Worst Downturn in Years Set to Continue, With Subtle Easing
Consider 2008 a prelude of what's to come next year for Orange County's retail sector.
The county's shops, restaurants and auto dealers were among the hardest hit this year. The pain stands to carry over into 2009.
Some - clothing shops, restaurants and specialty stores- couid sec marginal improvement from 2008, according to economists at Chapman University in Orange.
Auto dealers, home furnishing stores and building materials sel lers are in for another year of decline, though the louses muy not be as sleep as in 2008.
Local retail sales for 2009 are forecast to be $38.3 billion, a 0.9% decrease from 2008, according to Chapman. Sake declined 1 .4% to $38.6 billion in 200$ from 2007.
The sector is one of the closest corollaries to the larger economy. Chapman's economic forecast released this month puts it like this:
Consumption is largely a function of disposable income But sharp job losses and rising unemployment neat double-digit levels point to declining disposable income."
Another telling todicator of a bad year to come: Personal income is expected to grown 2.5%, down from an estimated 2.9% increase in 2008, a 4.9% ri» in 2007 and a 6.2% increase in 2006.
Retail sates are expected to see a turnaround in late 2009. But things won't necessarily feel a whole lot better next year.
2009 is likely to see fallout from tins year's downturn with more store and auto dealer closures and trouble at milk and shopping centers.
"This situation is deeper and darker than anybody thought," said Robert Cohen, executive vice president and bead of the Los Angeles office of New YoA-based Robert K. Furterman & Associates, a retail leasing agent and consultant.
Store Closures
The list of retailers that'll close stores in early 2009 is long: Caché Inc.; Circuit City Stores Inc.;...