This paper provides a short presentation of the Lake Chad water conflict and demonstrates the dependency between water scarcity and security. The conflict shows the consequences and effects of climate change and overpopulation; furthermore, it highlights the link between global warming and armed conflicts. Despite the fact that the conflict between Nigeria and Cameroon is over, there is no satisfactory solution to the root of the problem. The Lake Chad conflict is an extraordinarily complicated situation, because Lake Chad is a transnational lake. Its shares borders with Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad. The water shortage unleashed an armed conflict between Nigeria and Cameroon. Finally, the United Nations International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivered a judgement in the dispute in 2002. Although interstate conflicts and disputes were solvedwith the assistance of an intergovernmental organization, the Lake Chad Basin Commission, intrastate problems are still unsolved and this is an important social and security related issue. As a result of the climate change and the lack of the international cooperation in the field of water resource management, more and more disputes and conflicts are expected to occur in Africa.
Keywords: Chad Lake; Water Conflicts; Climate Change; Nigeria; Water Management; Africa.
Introduction
The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the dependency between water scarcity and security related conflicts connected to Lake Chad. Currently, there is a humanitarian crisis in the Lake Chad Basin. The drought in the region has started 22-24 years ago. Altogether, 10.7 million people were affected in the crisis and 2.4 million people were forced to leave their home. In 2018, 5 million people were affected by malnutrition and food insecurity. In the Lake Chad Basin, 80-90% of the population depends on the agriculture, fishery, and livestock. In this fragile situation, every conflict is followed by dramatic consequences. As a result of climate change, people are forced to leave their home because they do not have access to water. They do not have another chance, therefore they are moving into IDP camps 1.
There are two different levels of conflict in connection to Lake Chad, an interstate and an intrastate conflict. One conflict which has already been solved is an interstate conflict. Armed conflicts existed between Nigeria and Cameroon and between Nigeria and Chad, regarding water provisions. Due to climate changes, the countries surrounding Lake Chad Basin have been forced to cooperate with each other. They have to solve their disputes peacefully and cooperate with each other in order to avoid further conflicts and together find a solution to the results of changes in climate patterns. The affected countries have come to the conclusion that international negotiation and cooperation is the only way to find a mutual beneficial solution. Each riparian country is facing a humanitarian crisis in the Lake Chad Basin.
Despite the fact that the interstates conflict has been solved, the riparian countries are cooperating with each other in order to avoid a war. All of them are interested in one thing and that is obtaining and maintaining peace in the region; however, the conflict has deepened into an intrastate level. The interstate cooperation does not touch the root causes of the problem. The regional and local tensions are still high in the region and water scarcity is intensifying these tensions. Although the direct link between the insecurity and poverty is relatively weak, the situation in Lake Chad region has provided an opportunity for armed militias, such as Boko Haram, to find supporters and recruit new members that are disappointed with the way things are turning in their country and who are hopeless about their future.
Nowadays, an Islamist insurgency is destabilizing the Lake Chad region. It is still an ongoing conflict, but putting an end to the Islamist insurgency is essential for solving the humanitarian crisis. Additional consequences of the instability, the education system is completely destabilized, and the healthcare system completely collapsed. The international and national aids cannot reach the indigents and the intrastate conflicts are still unsolved. One of the most import trigger factor is, evidently, water scarcity.
1.The potential security risk of water scarcity in Africa
Water is the most vital and the most precious resource for human existence and it covers 71% of the Earth's surface, but unfortunately 96.5% of the Earth's total water resources is salt water, which is unsuitable for human consumption. Only the remaining 3.5% is fresh water found in lakes and rivers.2 There are two categories of fresh water. One of these categories is non-renewable fresh water, which is found in the deep aquifer, the other one is renewable fresh water, which is found on the surface and has a vital role in the hydrologic cycle3. There is no life without fresh water. As one of the most essential resources, the role of water has been increasing.
Globally, some 1.2 billion people have no regular access to fresh water. According to forecasts, this number will rise in the following decades. It means that one fifth of the population of the Earth lives in areas where water scarcity is not only a theoretical, but also a real issue. Water scarcity is both a natural and a man-made phenomenon.
Africa is the second driest continent of the World, after Australia. According to the UN Africa Water Atlas, 69% of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa has no proper sanitation facilities; furthermore, 40% of the people have no reliable access to safe fresh water. 15% of the global population lives on the African continent, and despite this fact, they only have 9% of the global freshwater resources.4
According to the Human Development Report 2006 of the United Nations Development Programme water stress is experienced in areas where the annual water supply drops below 1,700 m3 per person. The population will face water scarcity when the annual water supply drops below 1,000 m3 and absolute water scarcity means that water supply goes under 500 m3 per year.
The largest number of water-stressed countries of all regions in Africa is situated in the Sub-Saharan areas. Today, almost 25% of the Sub-Saharan African population lives in a water stressed country.5
According to some forecasts, water scarcity in the 21st century will be one of the leading causes of future conflicts in Africa, the issue being rather complex. Until now, fresh water as a cause of wars or conflicts was only a secondary issue; the main reasons were religious, ethnic, economic and political ones.6 There is a strong link between water and society - the lack of water could cause serious security challenges. The scarcity of water could cause radical reactions - such as armed conflicts - in the society in order to get control over water supplies. During the history of mankind, one of the fundamental causes of wars was seizing resources.7
The internationally accepted definition of the water conflict reads as follows: "Water conflict refers to any disagreement or dispute over or about water, where external social, economic, legal, political, or military intervention is needed to resolve the problem. A water war is an armed conflict that is fought between countries with the sole or primary purpose of gaining access to water, or where water forms the central weapon of offence in the arsenal of an aggressor".8
There are two significant causes of water scarcity in Africa: climate change and overpopulation.
2.Reasons and consequences of water scarcity
2.1. Climate Change
During the past 100 years the planet's average temperature has grown by about 0.9 centigrade. This process has been accelerating in the last 35 years. It must be emphasized here that 2016 has been the warmest year since the 19th century.9
There are countless consequences of global warming.Theseeffectsseriously affecttheAfrican continent. In Africa, the average precipitation is decreasing, which causes difficulties in providing sufficient amounts of high quality drinking water, essential for agriculture and food production. There is no life without water, it is fundamental to life. Water scarcity forces the local population to leave their territories and look for new places to live. This migration develops conflicts between the newcomers and the original local population.
Climate change generates serious challenges in Africa. The lack of resources, such as water and agricultural products, aggravates the tensions in the concerned countries. These countries are already facing challenges connected to social, security, and economic issues. Water scarcity, which is one of the consequences of climate change, and inadequate water management and overpopulation are capable of inflaming already existing conflicts. In general, water scarcity is not the primary cause of wars, but is undoubtedly one of the most important reasons. Water and food scarcity only add oil to the fire.10
This phenomenon is an important issue in Africa. The continent suffers from the consequences of climate change. It is especially arid territories that are involved in this situation.11
2.2. Overpopulation
According to United Nations estimates, the population of Africa is 1.2 billion. This means that the African population makes up 16% of the total world population.12
There is a rapid population explosion on the continent. In recent years, the population has been growing by 30 million people per year. By the year 2050, approximately 2.4 billion people will live in Africa. According to estimates the annual growth of the population will be 42 million13.
3.The Lake Chad issue
The Lake Chad issue, in other words, the Lake Chad conflict is also a very complex matter. During the past 53 years, the lake has lost 90% of its water. 14
The Lake Chad region is one of the poorest regions of Africa. It experiences a swift demographic growth and is seriously vulnerable to climate change.16
In 1964 four countries - Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Cameroon - shared the water of Lake Chad. Nowadays it has dried out so much that actually only two countries - Chad and Cameroon - share it in narrow sense.17
In 1964, the above mentioned four countries and later, also the Central African Republic initiated the setting up of the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC). The task of this regional body is to regulate the Lake Chad water and other natural resources, but this organization was virtually unable to save the basin.18 The Lake Chad Basin Commission has the responsibility to work with stakeholders across the region to address sharing, conservation and management of the lake resources and in engaging diplomatic options to resolve conflicts.
Nigeria built two monumental dams on the Yobe River. The Tiga dam was constructed in 1974 and the Challawa Gorge dam in 1992. As a result of inconsiderate water management the Yobe's runoff reduced by 60%, consequently only 1% of the Yobe water reaches Lake Chad. The two dams disrupted the natural balance which resulted in low water level;19 therefore, this generates a continuous tension in the basin.
4.Previous conflicts in connection with Lake Chad
The conflict around Lake Chad is not a 21st century phenomenon. As a result of the disappearance of Lake Chad in the 1980's, Nigerian fishermen began to follow the disappearing water and started to migrate to Cameroon. Ten years later, Nigerian fishermen established approximately 30 villages in Cameroon. As it looks familiar in the context of African conflicts, the border between Nigeria and Cameroon has existed since colonial times. The tension grew when the Nigerian government insisted that the new villages belonged to Nigerian territory. Nigeria installed military and police forces, and established health centers and schools in the Nigerian populated villages. This situation caused several military encounters and clashes between the two countries. Finally, the case was brought before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 2002. In accordance with the judgment delivered by ICJ Nigeria had to remove the public services and withdraw the military forces from the area.20
Border disputes have already existed in the region from the colonial times, especially between Nigeria and Cameroon. The armed conflict in connection with Lake Chad began on 18.04.1983, when three thousand Chadian soldiers attacked and occupied nineteen islands and six villages.21 There were complex reasons for the military operation. On the one hand, the reason was climate change, and on the other hand, the reason was overpopulation. In the 20th century, the Chadians and the Nigerians lived in peace and shared Lake Chad. As a result of climate change and careless water management, the lake has started to run dry. This changing phenomenon caused variations in the situation. Nigerian fishermen followed the shrinking lake and settled down in villages in the Chadian territory of Lake Chad.
The Nigerian army repulsed the Chadian attack and deployed four thousand Nigerian soldiers to launch a counterattack; and as a result of this counter-offensive, the Nigerian army broke into the territory of Chad and stopped at a 50km distance from the Chadian Capital, N'Djamena. Finally, Nigeria withdrew its forces.22 As a consequence of this short war, the border between Nigeria and Chad was closed until 1986.23
Today, former enemies are in a military alliance. Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad created an alliance in 2015.24 The outskirts of Lake Chad is the operational theatre of the Islamic terrorist organization called "Boko Haram". All the affected countries are making efforts to break down the organization which pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.25
Boko Haram launched its operation in Yobe State, Northern Nigeria in 2002. The aim of this insurgency was to fight against the government because of poverty and corruption. The main enemy of Boko Haram is "the West" and the socalled western culture. At the beginning, Boko Haram only attacked police and military targets, later, it occupied territories, as well.26
This ideology receives support from the poor population of the Lake Chad basin. Most members of Boko Haram belong to the Kanuri ethnic group which lives around the Lake Chad basin. As a result of the ethnic, religious and cultural links in Chad, Niger and Cameroon, Boko Haram spread its operation in the region. At the peak of its power, Boko Haram ruled territories in Borno, Yobe and Adamaswa states, and its base was the Sambisa Forest in 2014.
At the initiative of Nigeria, the Lake Chad Basin Commission countries and some international partners, such as the US and France, have launched a military operation against Boko Haram.27
As a result of the military campaign the Nigerian President, Muhammadu Buhari announced that Nigeria and its allies "technically won the war" in December 2015 and Boko Haram is not able to carry out conventional attacks against the Nigerian and Cameroonian security forces and civilians.28
Nevertheless, Boko Haram still carries out occasional attacks even today and is an active actor in the Lake Chad crisis.
5.Background of the tensions in connection with Lake Chad Region
The spreading of radical ideologies and the growing influence of Boko Haram in the region cannot be explained by a single factor. It is important to understand the connection between the environmental, economic, social factors and the Islamist radical organization. In this paper, the environmental factor is highlighted, but the other factors are taken in account, as well.
One of the factors which are contributing to the operation of the Boko Haram is the limited governance and power of the state. The Lake Chad region is located in the peripheral territory of Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon. People who are living in the territory have had limited interaction with state authorities throughout history - thus, we can state that the state does not have influence on their daily life.
When the state's representatives appear, corruption and social injustice come up as well. Traditionally, in the Lake Chad Region, people avoid the insufficient governance and mismanagement. As mentioned, according to the Transparency International Perceptions Index 2018, which ranks 180 countries by their perceived levels of public sector corruption based on experts and businesspeople, Nigeria' rank is 144/18029, Chad's rank is 165/18030 Cameroon's rank is 152/18031, Niger is 114/18032. All of these facts demonstrate that the corruption is a serious problem in the region. The other factor which contributes to the hostile atmosphere between the local population and the state is the accusation of abuse against civilians committed by the security forces.
Another result of the poor governance is the presence of serious organized crime networks in the region. Smuggler and other kinds of organized crime groups operate in the Lake Chad Basin; banditry is also a frequent phenomenon in the region.
Beyond the criminal actors, - as a result of the lack of governance -, other militias and armed groups turned up in the basin. Nowadays, the most notorious group is the Boko Haram, but there are other less known groups as well. Terrorism is a really important challenge in the region.
Desertification and environmental pressure is yet another aspect, as the Lake Chad region has been suffering from the effects of insufficient water management and climate changes in the recent years. Water scarcity has impact on environmental degradation and on the livelihood, which generate migration. Some communities, which live at the shoreline of the lake, are forced to follow water in order to secure their livelihood. In the region, fishing and farming are essential in order to survive; another option is IDP33 camps displacement.
As for the Social and Religious Dynamics, it has to be pointed out that Islam has significant influence in the region. The ideology of the Boko Haram is not a new phenomenon in the Lake Chad region. Throughout the history, several Islamist movements appeared around Lake Chad. Nowadays, one of the most infamous is the Boko Haram terrorist organization.
Recommendations
In the following, we are going to advance a set of recommendations, from the macro level (international) to the micro level (local). Thus, on international level, it is necessary to look for effective solutions for water scarcity, because, on one hand, it is an environmental and natural phenomenon, but on the other hand, it is manmade, artificial phenomenon as well.
On international and national level, it is necessary to develop the economy, livelihood, and to create new jobs in order to secure a sustainable future for the locals.
On regional level, it is necessary to disarm the Boko Haram and other militias and reintegrate their members into the society.
On regional level, local people should be supported financially and, furthermore, public service and administration should be developed in order to keep them away from the radical ideology and criminality.
On local level, state's presence should be extended, and corruption should be tackled as well. Also, states should do every effort to build peace and support human well-being in order to reduce vulnerability.
Conclusions
As exposed in the article, there is direct link between the access to freshwater and security. Therefore, the European Union and other international actors should take water scarcity in Africa seriously as it is able to generate a significant security concern. As in every crisis, the most effective way is to solve them is prevention. Prevention of the conflict is nearly impossible without international cooperation and without the intention of the international community. Efficient negotiation is essential in order to avoid armed conflicts generated in connection with water. In case of a civil strife or interstate wars, international actors should be ready for intervention in order to prevent the escalation of violent incidences. Unfortunately, the Darfur conflict or Rwandan genocide are negative examples of crisis management, because the indifference of the international community has responsibility in its failure. In the light of these reasons, prevention of African water conflicts is relevant for Europe, as well.
As a result of climate change, inadequate water management and overpopulation, Africa's other regions such as Eastern-Africa or NorthernAfrica might also be affected by potential conflicts.
Regarding to the Lake Chad crisis, it is important to highlight that the former interstate conflict became an intrastate conflict.
In the Lake Chad conflict, on account of climate change and water scarcity, the local people have been losing their livelihood. Some years ago, fishery ensured the livelihood in the area, but as a result of the disappearing of the lake, they have lost their workplace and they have been becoming impoverished. The unsatisfied and hopeless people are more vulnerable to radicalization. As a long term result of the water scarcity and impoverishment, Boko Haram has been gaining more and more influence and it able to destabilizing the region.
The geographic characteristic oftheLake Chad Basin, the porous natural and national borders, the historical, cultural and social traditions are all contributions to the complex situation, which is advantageous for the operation of the Islamist insurgent groups and other criminal and armed groups as well. The lack of state's presence, the decreased economic situation, water scarcity and other factors contribute to the high unemployment rate and underdevelopment and generate a poverty cycle. These economic and environmental factors contribute to the recruitment by the organized crime groups, and radical armed militias. The poverty, dissatisfaction of people and other factors assist the spread of radical ideology.
As proved in the paper, the accomplishment of interstate conflict was easier than solve the lower level, intrastate issue. It is important to clarify that the fight against the Boko Haram is not only a military campaign. Water scarcity is a trigger factor in the crisis, nevertheless the riparian countries should clear up several sensitive factors in order to solve the Lake Chad crisis.
1 Camps for Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) are for people forced to flee their own home but who remain within their country border.
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20 International Court of Justice, Land and Maritime Boundary between Cameroon and Nigeria, 2002, URL: http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/index.php?pr=294&cod e=cn&p1=3&p2=3&p3=6&case=94&k, accessed on 13.01.2019.
21 Besenyő János, Jagadics Péter, Hetényi Soma Ambrus, Resperger István, Országismertető: Csád (Country Information: Chad), Székesfehérvár: MH Összhaderőnemi parancsnokság, p. 201.
22 Perestroika, "Forgotten Facts: The three day war between Nigeria and Chad", Defense Nigeria, URL:<https://defensenigeria.blog/2017/08/21/forgotten-facts the-three-day-war-between-nigeria-and-chad/>, accessed on 11.01.2019.
23 Ethan L. Hall, "Conflict for Resources: Water in the Lake Chad Basin", School of Advanced Military Studies, United States Army Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, URL: https://apps.dtic.mil/ dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a505231.pdf, accessed on 11.01.2019.
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27 Virginia Comolli, "The evolution and impact of Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin", Humanitarian Practice Network (HPN), URL: https://odihpn.org/magazine/the evolution-and-impact-of-boko-haram-in-the-lake-chad basin/, accessed on 11.01.2019.
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33 Camps for Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) someone who is forced to flee his or her own but who remains within his or her country's border.
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Abstract
This paper provides a short presentation of the Lake Chad water conflict and demonstrates the dependency between water scarcity and security. The conflict shows the consequences and effects of climate change and overpopulation; furthermore, it highlights the link between global warming and armed conflicts. Despite the fact that the conflict between Nigeria and Cameroon is over, there is no satisfactory solution to the root of the problem. The Lake Chad conflict is an extraordinarily complicated situation, because Lake Chad is a transnational lake. Its shares borders with Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad. The water shortage unleashed an armed conflict between Nigeria and Cameroon. Finally, the United Nations International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivered a judgement in the dispute in 2002. Although interstate conflicts and disputes were solvedwith the assistance of an intergovernmental organization, the Lake Chad Basin Commission, intrastate problems are still unsolved and this is an important social and security related issue. As a result of the climate change and the lack of the international cooperation in the field of water resource management, more and more disputes and conflicts are expected to occur in Africa.
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Details
1 National University of Public Services (NUPS) in Budapest, Hungary. E-mail: [email protected]