Abstract

Background

Management advice for women with lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) is hampered by the lack of accurate personalised risk estimates for subsequent invasive breast cancer (BC). Prospective validation of the only tool that estimates individual BC risk for a woman with LCIS, the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study Risk Evaluation Tool (IBIS-RET), is lacking.

Methods

Using population-based cancer registry data for 732 women with LCIS, the calibration and discrimination accuracy of IBIS-RET Version 7.2 were assessed.

Results

The mean observed 10-year risk of invasive BC was 14.1% (95% CI:11.3%-17.5%). IBIS-RET overestimated invasive BC risk (p = 0.0003) and demonstrated poor discriminatory accuracy (AUC 0.54, 95% CI: 0.48 – 0.62).

Conclusions

Clinicians should understand that IBIS-RET Version 7.2 may overestimate 10-year invasive BC risk for Australian women with LCIS. The newer IBIS-RET Version 8.0, released September 2017, includes mammographic density and may perform better, but validation is needed.

Details

Title
Validation of the IBIS breast cancer risk evaluator for women with lobular carcinoma in-situ
Author
Lo, Louisa Lisa 1 ; Roger Laughlin Milne 2 ; Liao, Yuyan 3 ; Cuzick, Jack 4 ; Terry, Mary Beth 5 ; Kelly-Anne, Phillips 6   VIAFID ORCID Logo 

1  Division of Cancer Medicine, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia 
2  Cancer Epidemiology and Intelligence Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia 
3  Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, USA 
4  Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK 
5  Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, USA; Herbert Irving Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 
6  Division of Cancer Medicine, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Sir Peter MacCallum Dept of Oncology, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Department of Medicine, St Vincent’s Hospital, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia 
Pages
36-39
Publication year
2018
Publication date
Jul 2018
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
ISSN
00070920
e-ISSN
15321827
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41416-018-0120-z
ProQuest document ID
2065383880
Copyright
© 2018. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.