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Two hypotheses derived from groupthink theory were tested in a laboratory study which included measures of the full range of symptoms of groupthink, symptoms of a poor decision process, and decision quality. The hypothesis that groups whose leaders promoted their own preferred solutions would be more likely to fall victim to groupthink than groups with nonpromotional leaders received partial support. Groups with promotional leaders produced more symptoms of groupthink, discussed fewer facts, and reached a decision more quickly than groups with nonpromotional leaders. The hypothesis that groups composed of members who were predisposed to conform would be more likely to fall victim to groupthink than groups whose members were not predisposed to conform received no support. It is suggested that groupthink research is hampered by measurement problems.
An important issue in the study of groups concerns the determinants of poor versus good decision making. One influential theory of group decision making is Janis's (1972, 1982) groupthink theory. Groupthink theory (Janis, 1982; Janis & Mann, 1977) specifies several factors (antecedents of groupthink) which, in combination, facilitate the poor decision making called groupthink. These antecedents include high group cohesiveness, a stressful situation, and a variety of structural or administrative factors such as insulation of the group, promotional leadership, lack of methodical decision-making procedures, and lack of variety among members' values and perspectives. The present study uses the framework of groupthink theory to investigate the influence of two factors on group decision making: (1) promotional leadership, an antecedent included by Janis, and (2) group members' conformity predisposition, a personality factor not considered by Janis.
The term groupthink refers to a premature striving by group members for unanimous agreement on a course of action. Groupthink is undesirable because it cuts off necessary consideration of the pros and cons of the various decision options. Groupthink is identifiable by eight symptoms which represent different ways that group members attempt to avoid, or reduce, the anxiety associated with decision making and protect their self-esteem (Janis, 1982). The symptoms are of three types. Type I symptoms involve overestimating the group; group members share the illusion that the group is invulnerable and the unquestioned belief that the group's cause is just. Type II symptoms involve closed-mindedness. Group members collectively rationalize away information which...