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The imminent decline of populations in Europe, Japan and South Korea has generated widespread apprehension, largely because of fears that there will not be enough working age people to support the elderly. The UN Population Division has seemed to endorse those fears by an analysis of the levels of immigration needed to provide a constant number or ratio of workers, and by writing of the need for a "solution" to population decline. On the other hand, smaller populations would be environmentally advantageous in those countries. They must return to replacement level fertility or risk replacement by other populations, but they would benefit if they reached stationarity at a smaller population level. The transition is manageable if a higher proportion of "working age" people go to work. Right now, though dependency ratios are supposedly highly "favorable", most of those countries are plagued by high unemployment levels.
KEY WORDS: Europe; population decline; dependency ratio; United Nations Population Division; "replacement fertility".
Europe's population growth is on the verge of turning around, and the almost universal reaction has been panic at the prospect-as if the population it so recently attained is essential to its survival. The reaction illuminates the general infatuation with growth. We heard few questions raised as population grew, but the end of growth is seen as a disaster. I think this topic needs more serious thought and a less visceral reaction.
THE UN AND "REPLACEMENT MIGRATION"
The popular press reflects the fear that there will not be enough labor to support aging populations in Europe and Japan. The UN Population Division has taken up the issue and has published projections showing how much "replacement migration" will be needed in the European Union, in Europe as a whole, in several individual European countries, Japan, Korea and the United States, in order to maintain (1) the present population, or (2) the numbers of working age people, or (3) the present ratio of workingage to retired-age populations. (United Nations, 2000).
The Population Division calculates that all the countries studied, except the United States, will need to raise immigration rates to avoid population decline. But the most dramatic projections are those under projection (3) above: the immigration necessary to maintain a constant ratio of working age residents to those...