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In 2016, Donald Trump startled the world by winning the Republican Party's nomination for the presidency of the United States. His subsequent triumph over the Democratic Party's Hillary Clinton in the general election capped what was surely one of the most surprising political developments in recent U.S. history. Many plausible explanations have been offered for Trump's victory, involving global trends as well as circumstances unique to the United States. Yet less attention has been paid to one of the key factors that enabled Trump's meteoric rise-the current state of the U.S. presidential-selection process, which puts a premium on a candidate's performance in state-based primary elections.
The U.S. system for nominating presidential candidates is remarkably complex and filled with irregularities. Each of the two major parties makes its final decision at a nominating convention where the majority selects the nominee. Most convention delegates are chosen by voters on the basis of the delegates' support for particular candidates. The winning candidates in modern times have generally been determined before the conventions ever meet. The conventions also possess the formal prerogative of selecting the vice-presidential candidates, but in practice the delegates have ceded this choice to the presidential nominee. The Democratic Party allocates about 15 percent of the seats at its convention to "superdelegates"-current or former elected officials with a career of party service. They are permitted to vote for any candidate they choose, without being bound by the results of elections in their states. The Republicans have only a handful of such delegates.
Most states choose their delegates in primaries. Some primaries are "closed," meaning that only those previously registered with a party, or who pledge to support the party, may vote for its delegates. Other primaries are "open," meaning that voters from any party may participate. Primaries for the Democratic Party in 2016 selected delegates on the basis of proportional representation. The Republican Party allowed selection both by proportional representation and by winner-takes-all, whether at the level of congressional districts or statewide. About a quarter of the states do not hold primaries, using instead party-run selection processes known as "caucuses." The whole process, finally, is crucially influenced by the timing of the various state contests. States such as Iowa and New Hampshire, which traditionally vote early...