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The Year 2000 bug is a technology problem that may have a profound impact on the economy. Problems with embedded systems, mainframe computers, and PCs have the potential of causing severe supply shocks at the turn of the century due to disruptions in utilities, manufacturing and transportation. This article outlines where the effects may be felt, how it may affect the economy, and points to many of the data-sharing sites of people working to solve the problem.
WHAT IS ALTERNATIVELY called the "Year 2000 Bug," "The Millennium Bug" or the "Y2K Crisis" combines something that in historical terms is rather young-computer technology-with a habit that is as old as humanity-procrastination. Even though it is commonly thought of as a "computer problem," it may, if the worst-case scenarios come true, have a profound impact on the economy.
The root of the Y2K problem comes from a shortcut that computer programmers took in the early days of computing, when computer memory and drive space were at a premium. Bytes were measured by the thousands, rather than by the megabytes and gigabytes that we use today. In the struggle to get programs to run in 48K of RAM, many programmers chose to display years with only the last two digits, i.e., 1968 would be 68. This wouldn't be a problem, thought the programmers, because surely these programs would be rewritten before the turn of the century.
However, many of these programs are still being used after all these years, especially on large mainframe computers that handle massive amounts of data for banks, credit card companies, the IRS, and the like. It has ramifications for the PC industry, too, and in embedded systems in power supply equipment, elevators, thermostats, medical devices, and VCRs. On January 1, 2000, many of these systems will think the date has suddenly become January 1, 1900, which may cause some programs to behave incorrectly and some programs to fail.
Because this problem may have such broad ramifications for the economy, it is difficult to come up with an estimate for the cost of a fix. Getting a good number is difficult, because many people doing the estimates, the Y2K consultants, have a vested interest in making the problem look worse. By far the...