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How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality
Tali Sharot1,4, Christoph W Korn24 & Raymond J Dolan1
Unrealistic optimism is a pervasive human trait that influences domains ranging from personal relationships to politics and finance. How people maintain unrealistic optimism, despite frequently encountering information that challenges those biased beliefs, is unknown. We examined this question and found a marked asymmetry in belief updating. Participants updated their beliefs more in response to information that was better than expected than to information that was worse. This selectivity was mediated by a relative failure to code for errors that should reduce optimism. Distinct regions of the prefrontal cortex tracked estimation errors when those called for positive update, both in individuals who scored high and low on trait optimism. However, highly optimistic individuals exhibited reduced tracking of estimation errors that called for negative update in right inferior prefrontal gyrus. These findings indicate that optimism is tied to a selective update failure and diminished neural coding of undesirable information regarding the future.
2011Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.
2011Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.
Peoples estimations of the future are often unrealistically optimistic15.
A problem that has puzzled scientists for decades is why human optimism is so pervasive when reality continuously confronts us with information that challenges these biased beliefs5. According to influential learning theories, agents should adjust their expectations when faced with disconfirming information6,7. However, this normative account is challenged by observations that providing people with evidence that disconfirms their positive outlook often fails to engender realistic expectations. For example, highlighting previously unknown risk factors for diseases is surprisingly ineffective at altering an individuals optimistic perception of their medical vulnerability8,9.
Even experts show worrying optimistic biases. For instance, financial analysts expect improbably high profits3 and family law attorneys underestimate the negative consequences of divorce2.
The wider societal importance of these errors derives from the fact that they reduce precautionary actions, such as practicing safe sex or saving for retirement8,9. On the upside, optimistic expectations can lower stress and anxiety, thereby promoting health and well-being1012.
Although the existence of unrealistic optimism has been extensively documented15,13,14, the biological and computational principles that help to maintain optimistically biased predictions in the face...