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Proponents of the "China threat" theory argue that it is inconceivable for China to have a peaceful rise; a superpower China will inevitably be a threat to the United States. This article analyzes the military and economic aspects of the "China threat" theory from theoretical, methodological, and strategic points of view. The theory's flaws are in its assumptions, which this article tackles by providing counter examples as well as by highlighting external and internal problems facing China that can complicate its rise to great-power status. In addition, the "China threat" theory is based on linear projection and imperfect historical analogies that are as misleading conceptually as they are strategically counterproductive to Sino-American strategic relations. This, of course, is not to argue that China poses no threat; it is, however, to suggest that the nature of any threat is far more nuanced than the "China threat" theorists claim it to be.
Key words: East Asian Security, U.S.-China relations
Introduction
China's rise has been viewed with uncertainty and anxiousness in the West. Its rapid economic growth, military modernization, and in recent years a surge in energy demand have made many in the United States talk about a "China threat." Policy makers, strategic thinkers, academics, and pundits have started exploring strategies of "containing" China, and rejecting the concept of "peaceful rise."1 There are many reasons for such fears. Robert Kagan, for example, has used history to argue that China's rise will not be peaceful. He has asserted: "The history of rising powers . . . and their attempted 'management' by established powers provides little reason for confidence or comfort. Rarely have rising powers risen without sparking a major war that reshaped the international system to reflect new realities of power."2
Others have expressed the threat from a rising China in starker terms. Bill Gertz, for example, has argued that "The People's Republic of China is the most serious national security threat the United States faces at present and will remain so into the foreseeable future . . . The reason Americans should take the threat from China so seriously is that it puts at risk the very national existence of the United States."3
The U.S. government has been more nuanced and reserved about the perceived threat from...