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North Korea, China, special economic zone, Kaesong, Rajin-Sönbong SEZ, Mt. Kumkang, "new northern policy"
CHINA'S NEW NORTH KOREA POLICY: TRADITIONALISTS' VICTORY OVER STRATEGISTS
Recently, the world is seeing an important change in China's policy toward North Korea. After North Korea's second nuclear test in May 2009, China embarked on reassessing its North Korea policy under President Hu Jintao's instructions. Until now, China's North Korea policy had two goals: denuclearization and stabilization in North Korea. However, after its second nuclear test, North Korea is fast approaching the status of a nuclear state, and it has become difficult for the two goals to be met simultaneously. If China joins the rest of the world in imposing strict international sanctions on North Korea to persuade it to denuclearize, the North Korean regime will be highly likely collapse. On the other hand, if China is halfhearted with the sanctions or attempts to serve as a buffer zone and cushion the shock of the sanctions, it will be going against its diplomatic goal of becoming "a responsible power."
Under such circumstances, strategists in China believe that Sino - NK relations must normalize, and China should implement international sanctions in accordance with the stated goal of becoming a responsible power and strongly pressure North Korea to denuclearize. However, traditionalists have a contradicting view that stabilization in North Korea should be the highest priority, citing that strict sanctions would lead to the collapse of North Korea's regime and hurt China's national interests. It appears that the traditionalists are emerging victorious in this debate.1
This is evident in the changes to China's North Korea policy. A prime example is Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to Pyongyang on October 4, 2009. At the time, Wen pledged unprecedented largescale investment and aid to North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il on the premise that North Korea return to the Six-party Talks and stop additional provocations. So far, aid totaling $20 million has been publicized, but it is believed that a consensus was reached regarding longterm economic cooperation issues such as the development of North Korea's infrastructure. In particular, it seems the Chinese government promised to support the development of special economic zones (SEZ) on Hwanggümp'yöng Island and Wihwa Island in connection with Liaomng's Five Point,...