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Problem definition as seen from the investigational practice
The authors have extensive experience in criminal investigations from their respective perspectives in complex cases and operations. Despite several operational improvements over the past decade, (complex) investigations remain susceptible to several well-known issues, including tunnel vision. We also register a low clearance rate, particularly with regard to cold cases and little to no connection between science and practice.
In this paper, the authors propose a multi-faceted approach to tackle the abovementioned issues. The scenario reconstruction method (SRM) is an intelligence-driven investigative tool, that is, applicable to all investigations, whether they concern hot cases or cold cases. The focus here is on the latter in particular. The following question is central: How can scenario reconstruction contribute to intelligence-driven investigations, especially in connection with cold case investigations or investigations that run a greater risk of becoming cold case investigations?
Introduction: Cold case challenges in The Netherlands
The low clearance rate of Dutch cold cases
In The Netherlands, large-scale inquiries are usually set up to deal with complex, serious crimes that have a substantial impact on society as follows: homicides such as murder or manslaughter, urgent and long-term missing person cases and serious sexual offences such as rape and assault (Liedenbaum, 2015; Kruijer, 2015). For example, 2,895 homicide cases were registered in 2018 in The Netherlands, but only 1,700 were solved, resulting in a humble clearance rate of approximately 58 per cent [Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (Central Bureau of Statistics), 2019][1]. If a very serious offence with a possible sentence of at least 12 years is not solved, the force command can decide that the investigation ceases and it becomes a cold case. The case is then assigned a specific label in the police database. The ultimate goal is to solve it without a specific date or deadline. Since 2013, the Dutch Police has worked structurally on cold case investigations. In total, 1,174 cold cases were registered in 2018. The oldest case is known as “het Heulmeisje”, where the body of an unidentified young girl had been found in 1976 at the parking “De Heul” next to the motorway A12. The clearance rate of these cases is very low. Only 57 cold cases have been solved in the past 20 years...