中美贸易冲突、全球价值链重构与国际产能合作

Abstract

Abstract: At present, China-US economic and trade relations have entered a period of frequent frictions and economic and trade relations have changed from "ballast stone" (stable) Sino-US relations to "fire" (unstable). The US government frequently launches trade disputes with China, uses various trade relief tools to protect domestic sensitive industries and adopts unilateral trade measures to increase the price of Sino-US trade negotiations. Faced with the trend of US unilateralism in trade and the sustained slowdown of the global economy, the key questions are; how to improve China's right to speak and rule in the field of international trade and investment? How to enhance the ability of China and the vast number of developing countries to participate in the global value chain division of labor? Based on the perspective of global value chain reconstruction, this paper analyzes the industrial policy choices and micro-foundation of China's ability to participate in global economic governance based on the experience and evidence of China-Lithuania economic and trade investment cooperation. The study found that developed countries led by the United States have attracted domestic and foreign industrial capital and production factors to return to their own countries, raising the threshold for foreign investment and technical cooperation in developed countries. On the contrary, the space for seeking international capacity cooperation among developing countries has greatly increased. If the integration of the “Belt and Road” value chain is substantially promoted, China and the countries along the route will gradually transfer from the low-end state of the global value chain, which is embedded in Europe and America, to the regional value chain form of high value-added links of mutual benefit and win-win scenarios.

Alternate abstract:

当前中美经贸关系步入摩擦多发期，经贸关系已从中美关系的“压舱石”蜕变为“导 火索”。美国政府频繁发起对华贸易争端，使用各种贸易救济工具为国内敏感产业提供保护， 采取单边贸易措施提高在中美贸易谈判中的要价。面临美国的贸易单边主义政策和全球经济 持续性放缓的趋势，如何提升中国在国际贸易投资领域的话语权和规则制定权？如何增强中 国和广大发展中国家参与全球价值链分工的能力？本文从全球价值链重构视角，基于中国与 立陶宛经贸投资合作的经验与证据，探析我国提升参与全球经济治理能力的产业政策选择与 微观基础。研究发现美国为首的发达国家吸引国内外产业资本和生产要素向本国回流，提高 了发达国家对外投资与技术合作的门槛，反而导致发展中国家之间寻求国际产能合作空间大 为增加。若“一带一路”价值链整合得到实质性推进，中国与沿线国家将可能从嵌入欧美主 导的全球价值链低端锁定状态，逐渐转换为互利共赢的高附加值环节的区域价值链形态。