工业生产诱发地震成因与研究进展

Abstract

近年来，随着社会经济的不断发展，水库蓄水和地下工业开发活动规模不断增大，由此引起的诱发/触发的地震活动与日俱增，造成的破坏损失也逐年提升. 因此，人类的工业生产行为如何对区域地震活动产生影响，如何安全开展工业生产而不诱发/触发地震是社会公众与科研界讨论与关注的热点话题. 本文概述了国内外诱发/触发地震事件，探讨了诱发/触发地震形成的物理机制，从控制方程出发，对目前学术界常用的研究诱发/触发地震的手段进行了综述和讨论. 本文认为，随着科学技术和计算能力的不断发展，数值模拟将会发挥其独有的优势，成为研究诱发/触发地震的重要科学手段. 近年来，国内外研究学者已经利用数值模拟方法对诱发地震开展了一系列有意义的研究工作，诱发/触发地震的物理机制将会逐渐揭开，人类对于此类地震的防治手段将会逐渐丰富，有效减少由于工业开采等活动引起地震对社会的危害，并降低触发大震的风险. 然而，目前地震数值预测工作仍存在很多挑战，不仅需要完善的物理机制和先进的计算方法，更需要完备的观测与工业生产资料系统的建立.

Alternate abstract:

In recent years, with continuous social and economic development, there has been an increase in the scale of reservoir impoundment and underground industrial development activities. Consequently, induced or triggered seismicity is increasing, resulting in escalating damage losses. Therefore, the impact of industrial production behaviors on regional seismicity and the safe implementation of industrial production without causing earthquakes are important topics being discussed and closely monitored by the public and scientific research community. In this paper, we provide an overview of induced or triggered earthquakes, both domestic and international, and explore their causative mechanisms. Additionally, we summarize the methods commonly used to study induced or triggered earthquakes in academia, beginning with the governing equations. With the ongoing development of science and technology, numerical simulation will present unique advantages and become an important scientific tool for studying induced or triggered earthquakes. To date, both domestic and foreign researchers have conducted meaningful studies on induced earthquakes using numerical simulation methods. The physical mechanisms that trigger earthquakes will gradually be revealed, and measures for prevention and control will be improved. This work will effectively reduce the hazards caused by industrial production and other activities, thereby reducing the risk of triggering major earthquakes. However, there are still many challenges in numerical earthquake prediction. It not only requires a flawless physical mechanism and advanced calculation methods but also necessitates comprehensive observation and the establishment of an industrial production system.