Content area
Abstract
This dissertation seeks to bolster existing environmental security studies examining the relationship between water scarcity and conflict, by analyzing the statistical support of said relationship, and theorizing the exact nature of this relationship. Many works already exist theorizing over a potential relationship with potential consequences in the future, but this paper will demonstrate some evidence for this relationship using real data gathered today. This study was designed to follow a mixed method format, and can therefore be split into two parts. The first half of the paper is qualitative, explaining how and why water scarcity is expected to affect conflict within a region via a Small-N, most similar case study comparison of Cameroon and Gabon. This is followed by a quantitative second half using data gathered about water scarcity, and instances of conflict, across the continent of Africa over the past decade. This data is then compiled into SPSS software for analysis to confirm the statistical support for the explanations provided in the first half. Results were found to demonstrate statistically significant (1-tailed <0.01) relationships with moderate strength (.300-.350) between the variables. In contrast to previous research, real statistical support has been found to support that water scarcity’s effect on conflict is already an issue today. With the levels of instability in Africa today, and ever-increasing water scarcity levels around the world, the relevance of such studies is undeniable.
