THE ROLE OF MIND MAPS IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Abstract

The evolution of the international security environment requires that intelligence services be tailored in a way so they respond coherently, efficiently and in time to threats. The changes must not only focus on how intelligence structures act, but also on how intelligence analysts operate. Mind maps are the proper tools designed to shed light on complicated issues and to find creative solutions to extremely complex problems. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the benefits of developing heuristic thinking in the information analysis process and to explain why intelligence analysts should use more frequently this technique. Although heuristic schemes may initially seem to be a method of little relevance in the field of intelligence, this article aims to prove the exact opposite.

Headnote

The evolution of the international security environment requires that intelligence services be tailored in a way so they respond coherently, efficiently and in time to threats. The changes must not only focus on how intelligence structures act, but also on how intelligence analysts operate. Mind maps are the proper tools designed to shed light on complicated issues and to find creative solutions to extremely complex problems.

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the benefits of developing heuristic thinking in the information analysis process and to explain why intelligence analysts should use more frequently this technique.

Although heuristic schemes may initially seem to be a method of little relevance in the field of intelligence, this article aims to prove the exact opposite.

Keywords: mind maps; intelligence analysis; intelligence; information; crisis; analysis.

Introduction

The disintegration of the Soviet Union was perceived not only as a breath of fresh air for the Soviet Republics, but also as a source of uncertainty in what was intended to be the post-Cold War international security environment. In terms of holding and exercising power, the bipolar geopolitical system was about to be replaced by a unipolar system. Thus, the United States of America were about to become the first and only global power.

In a sea of uncertainty, one of the few truly certain aspects is related to the fact that the poles of power from the international arena seek to constantly realign themselves in relation to the fluctuations of the geostrategic and geopolitical environment, in the context of states' continuous struggle to obtain resources, informational supremacy, but also of counteracting other current challenges and threats. In view of the globalized international security environment, achieving information superiority can prove to be a real challenge, not just a vital goal. Therefore, the transformation of intelligence services and the use of new analysis methods must be the two priorities that any democratic state must take into account.

1. The epistemology of intelligence analysis

In the activity of intelligence structures, information plays a central part. One of the most important challenges for intelligence services is to identify potential crises before they produce irretrievable effects. Therefore, achieving information supremacy cannot be ridiculed as it is a necessity imposed by the international arena turmoil. The 21st century brings to the fore, among other things, a diversification of threats against international security, and it is often possible to establish a connection between threats and information, as in the case of cyber-attacks launched on private or state owned databases.1 Thus, the intelligence services are in the position of recruiting specialists from as many fields of activity as possible, given the fact that the information collected is, most of the time, within the sphere of multidisciplinary. Basically, "the individual finds himself in a strong information field, subject to an information flow from all directions and in all ways, official and unofficial, intentional or unintentional"2. Therefore, critical thinking and analytical ability prove to be the two key conditions that anyone, not just intelligence analysts, must meet. If one thinks of Kantian philosophy, one may conclude that the individual is both purpose and means, in the field of information.

On the one hand, the purpose of information is to convey a certain message to a target audience, as each entity, political or private, takes the necessary actions to direct people's perceptions and opinions in a certain direction. On the other hand, in intelligence, humans are the oldest and most important source of information. Those who do not work in intelligence services have a moral obligation, which derives from pragmatism: checking information from multiple sources, preferably from the primary ones, and reducing the consumption of prefabricated information products.

Beyond the cliché expressions, the power of information is undeniable. Thus, the information came to have two edges, one for the enemy and one for our own forces. When it is not correctly used or it is out of control, things can degenerate, because, like our own forces, the enemy also relies on information."3 Therefore, tainting information is both a goal and a concern that requires preventive measures. It can bring success to operations against the enemy, or it can ensure unfortunate failure if our own information is not protected even when it does not appear to be in imminent danger.

Intelligence is one of the most important components of strategic knowledge and "the main form of decision-making input for risk management, detecting challenges and threats in a state's security policy, as well as for seizing opportunities in order to achieve long-term goals".4 The whole intelligence process must result in an intelligence product designed for national security. Depending on what it foresees, the political decision-maker will lay the foundations of a relevant strategy to the national security related to a certain period.

Intelligence can also be approached from the perspective of the product resulted from the information processing about certain nations, forces or other hostile elements, as well as about current areas of operations or potential others.5 This way of defining is specific to the Romanian Army intelligence structures. The intelligence activity is carried out both in times of peace and war. By obtaining information about the specifics of certain nations and their political and military intentions, the policy maker can develop a specific strategy that becomes a guideline for how relations with the respective states will be conducted.

Scientific endeavours to develop a universal intelligence theory have proven to be a partial failure, for multiple reasons. Firstly, there are large differences between the intelligence services in terms of organizational culture, even if only the intelligence structures in democratic states would be considered.6 Secondly, an area with so many variables is difficult to be conceptualized. There are some elements that should be taken into account: sources of information, developments in information and communication technology, the war on terrorism, the achievement of information supremacy, as well as the contamination of the information that the enemy possesses, without them noticing.

The analysis can be defined as a mechanism underlying the establishment of knowledge, comprising the rational activities that determine gnoseological approaches.7 Basically, knowledge cannot be conceived in any form without going through the process of analysis first. Its role is to render a cognitive content with a novelty character. The newness of the cognitive approach can be reported at the individual's micro level or at the systemic level. The novelty manifested at systemic level necessarily implies innovation.

The intelligence analysis is composed of a series of steps as follows: "establishing the necessary information; planning, according to the priorities, the collection of information; obtaining and collecting primary information; analysis of information collected by specific methods and procedures; dissemination (communication) of results according to their own procedures to the targeted group".8

The fundamental role of intelligence analysis is to identify a certain meaning from a lot of collected information in various forms, by placing them in a certain context. The issues concerned may be religious, political, geographical or military, or may be based on a little of each, in a complex matrix of time, place and circumstances.9 Even if the pieces of information that were provided to the intelligence analyst may be good, bad or even contradictory, he must place them in a certain context with relevance to the policy maker.

Therefore, the intelligence analyst must have, among others, the following skills: a good knowledge of the subject to which the pieces of information subjected to analysis are related; knowledge of data research and evaluation methods; scientific rigor, but also imagination, both necessary in order to generate new hypotheses that will be subjected to further tests; knowledge of the particularities of information collection methods; awareness of cognitive errors; openness to opposing opinions; the honesty needed to admit one's mistakes and the willingness to internalize the lessons learned.10

Some of these peculiarities are not specific to intelligence, and they are necessary to any analyst from any field of activity. Therefore, most analysts are experts in culture, politics, history, linguistics and so on. By far, the most important skill that analysts must possess is the lessons learned acquisition, being the only method that allows them to improve their skills, giving consistency and quality to the intelligence product. In intelligence, the error is unfortunate, it can have serious consequences, but it is necessary in order to eliminate the gaps from the intelligence activity and for ensuring the evolution of the relevant institutions.

Although sometimes used as synonyms, there are substantial differences between the information and the intelligence concepts. The information is rough, it is necessary to place it in a certain context and, also, confirm its validity. In the collection stage, it can be placed in the sphere of ambiguity; the intelligence analyst must clarify all these variables. Intelligence is the result of gathering the pieces of information, analysing and evaluating them, as well as disseminating them to the policy maker. Therefore, at least in theory, the dissemination of the intelligence product cannot happen until all the elements that placed them in the uncertainty area have been removed. Even though intelligence services have begun to increasingly use open sources, analysts continue to rely mainly on classified information. The information sources used in intelligence can also be seen in Table no. 1.

2. Mind maps - defining elements and intelligence usability

To increase the effectiveness of intelligence analysis and to enhance its efficiency, military and civilian experts have searched for several methods, some of them coming from other fields, which can be applied here as well. The mind map is also known as the heuristic scheme and refers to "an important visual technique that provides a universal key to unleashing cognitive potential"12. The mind maps' role is to facilitate learning and clarify thinking, these two being the essential elements for the performance creation. Basically, they give up linear thinking, opening a realistic horizon: informational chaos. Therefore, thinking acquires new perspectives that give meaning to the myriad of data each person has at a given time. They must have several features: the focus is on a central image; the essential aspects of the subject in question emanate like branches from the central image; the branches are secondary subjects, forming a nodal structure.13 Mind maps are, in fact, graphic tools that are based on the use of colours, images, lines, and logical connections. Their purpose is to organize information, but also to facilitate ideas' development. The hierarchy and the organization of information becomes a lot easier by using it. Moreover, this allows anyone to see not only the big picture, but also the details that underlie a particular topic.

Mind maps become truly valuable when used as a part of a comprehensive approach to all concepts that constitute a particular analysed subject.14 They become much more efficient in terms of storing information, given that mental maps are multidimensional, coloured in a multitude of shades, working in perfect harmony with the brain's natural structure.15 These tools can be used in any field with the same efficiency, especially for the development of organization projects, meetings, lists development, note-taking or personal development. In fact, heuristic schemes lead to the personal and professional development of any person. Performance is a consequence of the continuous improvement of the learning process, as well as of a coherent thinking, aspects to which the mental maps can contribute decisively. At the macro level, mind maps can be the tools that could have a strong contribution to a paradigm shift by creating new conceptual frameworks, as a result of reorganizing old ideas and principles and adding new ones. Ideally, those elements that have made a certain paradigm vulnerable can be identified and removed from the new conceptual framework.

Mind maps are a graphical representation of radiant thinking. It is based on a few steps: collecting information, making observations on the gathered information (this is where the analysis process begins); verification of observations from an empirical point of view, detailed description of observations; development of descriptive, prescriptive and normative principles. If the truth value of the conclusions is universal, then they can be an axiom. Drawing mind maps is not as difficult as it is effective, as seen in Figure 1.

This technique presents many benefits, one of them is that using the essential words for a particular analysis can result in saving a substantial amount of time.17 Mind maps also force the author to focus his/her ideas on the real problems. Another advantage is the increase of the brain's ability to make quick and clear associations between words, concepts, situations etc., the brain having the ability to remember easier those multidimensional and colourful mind maps, unlike traditional and linear notes. Moreover, as the author elaborates a mental map, he can make more and more associations and connections, being much simpler in this organized graphic framework than in what would be called informational cram.

Heuristic schemes must be based on highlights, associations, clarity and on the author's personal style.18 Although there are certain principles a mind map must be built on, the author is free to enrich it as he/she pleases. Basically, he has to find himself in what is designed and organized. The heuristic scheme can receive meanings known only by the author, the main condition being that of thought unleashing and giving it the freedom to manifest itself in other forms than linearly. Therefore, if two different people would have to make a mental map for a certain problem, the results would be different and, therefore, the suggested solutions would not coincide.

The hierarchy and numerical ordering of information contributes to visibility increase and to facilitating the creation of conceptual connections. Also, the author should not avoid the use of images when he wants to make a comprehensive approach of a particular subject or the use of synaesthesia (the use of "words or images that activate sight, hearing, smell, taste, touch and kinaesthesia"19). Heuristic schemes oblige the author to associate thinking with his own senses, with his own perceptions about the analysed subject.

Mind maps should be one of the most useful tools in the work of intelligence analysts. They operate with information from both open and secret sources, having a very high responsibility, given the results of the analyses can be decisive elements in the elaboration of the political decision. He must be a very well-organized person, with a well-developed critical thinking, but he must permanently prove creativity in making associations and establishing connections. For this reason, heuristic schemes must not only be known, but also applied by intelligence analysts. Given the volatility of the international security environment, establishing links between apparently distinct and unrelated events may be the missing piece of the puzzle in developing a scenario that can avoid a major crisis.

The development of mind maps can be a real help for intelligence analysts even when they try to memorize as well as possible the concepts that they must use in their activities. Most of the time, if not every time, the analyses impose a strong character of multidisciplinary. In this context, heuristic schemes become one of the most effective methods of establishing the elements that make possible the similarity/complementarity from certain points of view of different areas. The intelligence analyst can also use mind maps to better organize the received information. The data collected does not always reflect what the policy maker asks for. Therefore, analysts need to sort the received data according to their relevance to a particular topic, and then check their validity. The intelligence analysis based on heuristic schemes, where it is possible and when appropriate, is much clearer, and the resulting intelligence product has more chances to fit within the limits set by the policy maker. They also represent a useful tool in terms of time efficiency. In most cases, intelligence services need to act urgently, and analyses need to be developed in a very short period of time, but with clarity, consistency and efficiency, like when the time allotted is much longer. Heuristic schemes have a beneficial effect on stimulating creativity, and analysts need to have it when faced with information dilemmas. In many cases, creative thinking is the only way in which they can interpret certain data and develop solutions to complex problems.

If intelligence analysts frequently appeal to the use of mind maps, then they will be able to make associations much faster than usual, while meeting two requirements: quality and a reduced action time. By far, the most relevant aspect of mind maps is the overall picture that results in the end. For intelligence structures to be able to take the necessary measures in order to avoid a crisis situation, they must have in front of them a detailed and schematic representation of the crisis situation manifestation, as well as a picture of the context that made possible its occurrence.

Once completed, the mind map should be checked regularly. Its adjustments result from the way in which a certain problem evolves, from the post-conception implications, as well as from the consequences of the decision-makers' involvement in solving a problem/crisis.

Conclusions

Any potentially conflictual/crisis situation requires an overview in order to develop a strategy for resolving or avoiding it, and intelligence structures have a role to play not only in the stages of gathering and analysing information, but also in the counteracting stage. Adapting intelligence services to the threats of the 21st century also means streamlining intelligence analysis.

Mind maps cannot be conceived without considering the trio: visual memory - active learning - making connections. When intelligence analysts receive the information, it looks like dozens or hundreds of puzzle mixed pieces. In such a situation, the first step that analysts take into account is the data organization. The next step is to rank the information, as a requirement to fit somewhere in what should become the final picture of the analysis. Heuristic schemes can help them highlight the relevant details of a particular case, details that could be lost in a linear analysis. When there is a surplus of information, mind maps help analysts improve their concentration level, a sine qua non condition for finding hidden meanings in certain pieces of information.

Heuristic schemes shed some light on the problems whose magnitudes are less known. Therefore, an analysis on a subject with many unknowns and variables must use this method. The mind map helps establish the limits of a problem/crisis and the point from which the solution should be conceived. Intelligence analysis would be far less susceptible to error if analysts would rely more on the use of radiant thinking with all its peculiarities.

Footnote

1Florian Coldea, Despre serviciile de intelligence. Gânduri, perspective, opinii. Pledoarie pentru încredere, Rao Publishing House, Bucharest, 2018, pp. 41-42.

2 loan Manci, Dan Mangaliuc, Corneliu Preja, Managementul informaţiilor militare în actul decizional, "Nicolae Bălcescu" Land Forces Academy Publishing House, Sibiu, 2014, p. 21.

3 Sînziana-Florina Iancu, Rolul intelligenceului în prevenirea si managementul crizelor, "Carol I" National Defence University Publishing House, Bucharest, 2019, p. 119.

4 George Cristian Maior (coord.), Despre intelligence, Rao Publishing House, Bucharest, 2014, p. 10.

5 Gheorghe Savu (coord.), Informaţii pentru apărare (I). Note de curs, "Nicolae Balcescu" Land Forces Academy Publishing House, Sibiu, 2012, p. 242.

6 Consuela Avram, Intelligence si arta guvernării, Top Form Publishing House, Bucharest, 2016, p.22.

7 Marin Ioniţă, Încadrarea conceptuală a activităţii de informaţii. Informaţia de securitate naţională, în Ionel Niţu (coord.), Ghidul analistului de intelligence. Compendiu pentru analiştii debutanţi, "Mihai Viteazul" National Intellingence Academy Publishing House, Bucharest, 2011, p. 15.

8 Niculai-Tudorel Lehaci, Componenta intelligence în combaterea ameninţărilor de tip hibrid, "Carol I" National Defence University Publishing House, Bucharest, 2019, pp. 45-46.

9 J. Ransom Clark, Intelligence and National Security. A Reference Handbook, Praeger Security Interntional, London, 2007, p. 47.

10 Roger Z. George, James B. Bruce (ed.), Analyzing Intelligence. Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations, Georgetown University Press, Washington D.C., 2008, p. 3.

11 Mireille Rădoi, Serviciile de informaţii si decizia politică, Tritonic Publishing House, Bucharest, 2003, pp. 33-34.

12 Tony Buzan, Barry Buzan, Hărţi mentale, Curtea Veche Publishing House, Bucharest, 2012, p. 77.

13 Ibidem, pp. 77-78.

14 P S. Meier, "Mind-Mapping. A Tool for Eliciting and Representing Knowledge held by Diverse Informants", in Social Research Update, No. 52, 2007, p. 4.

15 Aliye Erdem, "Mind Maps as a Lifelong Learning Tool", in Universal Journal of Educational Research, No. 5 (12 A), 2017, p. 2.

16 The figure was taken from ···Mind Maps. Learning and Information Service, URL: https:// www.nottingham.ac.uk/nmp/sonet/rlos/placs/ critical_reflection/pdf/mind_map_factsheet.pdf, accesed on 14.12.2019.

17 Tony Buzan, Barry Buzan, op. cit., pp. 114-115.

18 Ibidem, p. 122.

19 Ibidem, p. 126.

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