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Peter R. Lavoy, Scott D. Sagan, and James J. Wirtz, eds., Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2000. Pp. 270. $45.00, hardcover; $19.95, paperback.
The proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, collectively described as "unconventional," presents the most formidable security challenge of the immediate post-Cold War era. In the 1990s a number of states emerged as "rogue states," which later became known as "states of concern." Additionally, a series of spectacular terrorist incidents, most prominently the sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway, stimulated considerable concern about the prospect that the use of unconventional weapons by terrorists was a new trend. Many policymakers and commentators viewed these newly emerging actors as willing to brandish unconventional weapons in an asymmetric fashion that the United States was not adequately prepared to handle on the battlefield or on its homeland. Understanding how these new actors make decisions about unconventional weapons and implement those decisions bears importantly on U.S. deterrence policy, targeting, counterterrorism, arms control, and a host of other security issues.
The editors seek to apply three different theoretical approaches to understanding how states and terrorists that have recently acquired unconventional weapons plan to use them. Drawing from the rich literature on American nuclear doctrine and command and control, the editors engaged eight of the most qualified analysts to address their particular cases. The final result is a collection of essays that are wellconceived, generally well-researched, and well-written. Overall, the volume provides an important contribution to understanding how new possessors of unconventional weapons attempt to manage them in pursuit of strategic objectives.
Editor Scott Sagan's chapter on the origins of military doctrine and command and control systems sets out the three frameworks that the case study authors apply. The explanatory power of the realist, organizational behavior, and strategic culture models are illustrated with reference to the evolution of the United States'...