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Ethnic tensions and ancient political feuds are not starting civil wars around the world. A groundbreaking new study of civil conflict over the last 40 years reveals that economic forces-such as entrenched poverty and the trade in natural resources-are the true culprits. The solution ? Curb rebel financing, jump-start economic growth in vulnerable regions, and provide a robust military presence in nations emerging from conflict.
Every time a civil war breaks out, some historian traces its origin to the Ath century and some anthropologist expounds on its ethnic roots. Don't buy into such explanations too quickly. Certain countries are more prone to civil war than others, but distant history and ethnic tensions are rarely the best explanations for a conflict. Look instead at a nation's recent past and, most important, its economic conditions.
Once a country has reached a per capita income rivaling that of the world's richest nations, its risk of civil war is negligible. Today, about 900 million people live in such societies. Four billion more live in countries that are either already middle income or on track to becoming so, thanks to rapidly growing and diversifying economies. This group, which includes the economic success stories of the post-World War II era, faces fairly low risk of civil war. The potential for conflict is concentrated among the countries inhabited by the world's remaining 1.1 billion people. These countries typically have poor and declining economies and rely on natural resources-such as diamonds or oil-for a large proportion of national income. As the British, French, Portuguese, and Soviet empires successively dissolved during the last century, the number of such countries increased in waves.
Such at-risk countries are engaged in a sort of Russian roulette. Every year that their dismal economic conditions persist increases the odds that their societies will fall into armed conflict. Whether by luck or prudence, many such nations have so far escaped civil war Others have not. And once civil war has started, the decline in income and the accumulation of arms, fighting skills, and military capabilities greatly increase the risks of further conflict.
To date, academics and policymakers alike have misdiagnosed the nature of the problem; little surprise, then, that their efforts to prevent civil wars have been ineffective. When the...