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Near midnight on August 8, a column of several hundred Russian tanks rolled through the Roki Tunnel, which connects Russia to Georgia's breakaway province of South Ossetia. This action represented Russia's first military attack on another state since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979-hence, it was an event whose significance extended far beyond the South Caucasus. Indeed, while the humanitarian consequences of the war that ensued in Georgia do not compare with what transpired in Chechnya (or Bosnia) in the 1990s, the conflict arguably marked the most significant challenge to Europe's security architecture since the end of the cold war.
Within 10 days, Russian troops had taken control of South Ossetia and started a second front in Georgia's other separatist region, Abkhazia. And they had also intruded deep into noncontested Georgia, moving on the towns of Gori, Poti, Zugdidi, and Senaki. Military and civilian infrastructure had been bombed across Georgia, as had the railway connecting the eastern and western parts of the country. Even the prized Borjomi-Kharagauli National Park was in flames on account of Russian firebombing.
Russia's invasion was a surprise-but only in terms of its scope and brutality. For months if not years, Russia had been pressuring Georgia in various ways, singling it out among countries in the region for particularly aggressive treatment. This spring, several analysts predicted a war would take place, some even timing it to August. Yet Western leaders were caught unaware, and appeared unable or unwilling to respond meaningfully to Russia's attack. Why did this small war in the Caucasus happen, and who started it? What implications will it have for the South Caucasus, for the former Soviet Union more broadly, and for Europe as a whole?
CAUCASIAN EMPOWERMENT
In recent years, the nations of the South Caucasus have made some of the most remarkable progress that has been seen anywhere in the postSoviet space. This comes in stark contrast to these countries' first decade of independence, during the 1990s, when debilitating ethnic wars, political instability, and economic collapse made a shambles of the region. In that era Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a vicious war, and Georgia was torn apart as the two northern autonomous regions effectively seceded with Russian help. Afterwards, these conflicts remained unresolved, and the...