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Research has focused on many different predictors of cigarette smoking, including biological factors such as physical addiction and craving (Kozlowski & Herman, 1984); personality variables, including levels of extraversion, neuroticism, and impulsity (Munafo, Zetteler, & Clark, 2007; Mitchell, 1999); and broader social influences, such as advertising and laws (Staten et al., 2007; Hoek, Gifford, Pirikahu, Thomson, & Edwards, 2010; Levy, Mumford, & Gerlowski, 2007; Farrelly, Evans, & Sfekas, 1999). Although this research has aided our understanding of predictors of cigarette smoking, less research has focused on environmental predictors of smoking behaviour.
Aspects of the physical environment, such as temperature and rain, may change an individual's likelihood of smoking especially in recent years due to the establishment of smoking bans indoors at schools, at work, and in public buildings. The decrease in ability to smoke legally indoors in many parts of the United States (and many other countries) may lead to external physical factors such as temperature and rain being important predictors of cigarette smoking. As people are no longer allowed to smoke in and around restaurants, bars, and other public facilities, they may forgo or reduce smoking during days featuring unpleasant temperatures or inclement weather.
Weather factors have not been investigated previously as directly affecting cigarette smoking. Previous studies have provided indirect estimates of how weather affects cigarette sales, but without detailed measurement connecting weather directly to smoking. For example, prior research shows that national cigarette sales are higher in summer months than in winter months (Chandra & Chaloupka, 2003). In addition, average monthly temperature predicts cigarette sales, with more cigarettes sold in warmer months (Momperousse, Delnevo, & Lewis, 2007). However, both of these studies examined monthly temperatures and cigarettes sales without examining fluctuations in actual day-to-day cigarette smoking. In this study, we attempt to address this issue by using daily measures of both weather conditions and smoking levels.
It seems plausible to predict that individuals will smoke less in order to avoid uncomfortable outdoor conditions. People are more likely to smoke when the outside temperature is comfortable, and less likely when it is closer to freezing or unpleasantly hot. Smokers will avoid smoking outside if they may get wet. Of course, it is important to note that...