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Abstract
In order to overtake motor vehicles ahead, some motor vehicles tend to enter non-motorized lane illegally on non-physical isolated urban road, which cause a negative influence on non-motor vehicles. In this paper, this anomie behavior is studied by headway distribution function, fluid dynamics model and game theory. Utilize headway distribution function to calculate the probability of critical gap required for motor vehicles entering non- motorized lanes, and fluid mechanics model to analysis delay. After that, considering critical gap, delay, management expense and fine for anomie behavior, the time value functions of drivers and cyclists are established and regarded as the payment functions in mixed strategy Nash equilibrium. Finally, according to the result of Nash equilibrium, two optimal probability models are put forward. Under different circumstances of non-motor vehicle flow, motor vehicle speed, management expense and fine for anomie behavior, the first model quantified the optimal probability that drivers commit anomie behavior and the second model quantified the optimal probability that traffic department implements management. Furthermore, models can provide references for the management of anomie behavior on non-physical isolated urban road.
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